“The oil price reaction is telling us that, so far, this is contained,” Pickering said. “The expectation is the U.S. will do something to open, and keep open, the strait so oil can flow.”
Tech job openings are falling. Hiring rates broadly are weak. And layoffs across the economy recently hit their highest level since 2009—although Zandi makes the distinction AI’s weighing effect on the job market “is due to weaker hiring, not layoffs.” Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Economic Research reports over 80% of firms in recent surveys say there is no impact from AI on employment or productivity over the past three years—yet those same firms forecast AI will boost productivity by 1.4% over the next three years. That disconnect between falling hiring numbers and rising productivity is precisely what worries Zandi and why he considers this a watershed Cortés moment.
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